Philip Klapwijk, Managing Director of Precious Metals Insights will be panel member in the session "Evolution of the Precious Metals Market" at the LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2015 Date: Sunday, October 18, 2015 to Tuesday, October 20, 2015 Venue: Hilton Vienna, Vienna. Website: https://www.eiseverywhere.com/ehome/vienna2015/300251/?&
20 July 2015 FT.com - Financial Times - Gold driven to five-year low by Henry Sanderson. Additional reporting by Nicole Bullock.
"This has been reflected in the low premium for gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, where physical gold is traded in China" according to Philip Klapwijk of Precious Metals Insights Ltd. “The Shanghai Gold Exchange premium has been amazingly low for the level of price we’re at, which tells us the Chinese physical market is not strong at the moment,” he says. “Nor is India, which is at a discount. The physical markets haven’t been there to hold the price.”
2 July 2015 "China clamours to set global gold prices" Al Jazeera English Business & Economy. The world's biggest producer and consumer of the metal sees a golden opportunity to expand its pricing power. Raphael Balenieri
"The country's role in the international gold markets is still surprisingly small. China is very much a price taker, rather than a price setter," said Philip Klapwijk, founder of Precious Metals Insights Limited, a consultancy based in Hong Kong. "You might argue that given its huge consumption, China obviously influences global gold prices. But all the trading activity that goes on in China tends to be a domestic affair," said Klapwijk.
Friday 22 May 2015 Bloomberg Intelligence Agenda 2015 - Chinese Gold
Philip Klapwijk Managing Director of Precious Metals Insights Limited was speaking at Bloomberg Intelligence Agenda 2015 in Bloomberg London Headquarters.
To see the slides in pdf format of "Making Sense of Chinese Gold Flows & Gold Demand" by Philip Klapwijk MD of Precious Metals Insights Ltd click here.
Bloomberg Intelligence in partnership with the CME Group for a conference featuring expert speakers and panel discussions addressing drivers and themes in the precious metal markets. In tribute to LPPM Week, Johnson Matthey reviewed the supply and demand situation, and hosted a panel on the PGM markets. Discussion topics included:
Outlook for Global Precious Metals Markets
Chinese Demand: a New Gold Standard?
Supply/Demand for PGMs
29 April 2015 - "New trade initiatives to spur gold demand" China Daily USA with Philip Klapwijk
"China's growing interest in gold, however, was the opposite of what has been happening on the world market, where the price of the medal has been falling, said Philip Klapwijk, head consultant of Metals Focus, an independent precious metals consultancy."
08 April 2015 - Platinum Guild International's Platinum Retail Barometer. Comments by Philip Klapwijk of PMI on China platinum jewelry. Philip Klapwijk from Precious Metal Insights, who supervised the China Barometer, commented: “Plain platinum jewellery is facing headwinds these days in the Chinese market. In contrast, bridal continues to be solid and, most importantly perhaps for the future of demand, gem-set is expanding very strongly, albeit from a still relatively low base.”
31 March 2015 - Metals Focus Conference Gold Focus 2015 Launch in Toronto Canada - Presentation by Philip Klapwijk of Precious Metals Insights Limited Hong Kong and Chief Consultant to Metals Focus. Review of 2014 - Headwinds for Gold: Rates, Equities and Currencies - Key physical gold markets: China and India - Key Supply & Demand Factors - Market & Price Outlook for 2015.
Presentation slides by Philip Klapwijk can be viewed in this link.
25 March 2015 - Mines and Money Hong Kong 2015 - Platinum & Palladium 2015 Outlook
Pdf of presentations slides by Philip Klapwijk Managing Director, Precious Metals Insights Limited Hong Kong can be viewed in this link.
17 februari 2015 - Market Update - Frank Knopers Goud en Zilvermarkt Geen reacties Philip Klapwijk: “Shanghai Gold Exchange overschat Chinese vraag naar goud”
Volgens analist Philip Klapwijk van Precious Metals Insights zijn de cijfers van de Shanghai Gold Exchange niet te vergelijken met de totale vraag naar fysiek goud in China. Dat zei de analist tijdens het 2015 Reuters Global Gold Forum in een vraaggesprek over de Chinese goudmarkt.
“De opnames van goud uit de Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) laten het grote plaatje zien van de fysieke ‘vraag’. Ze geven niet per definitie een indicatie van de totale vraag naar juwelen, beleggingsgoud of industriële vraag naar goud. Dit komt omdat een groot deel van de opnames uit de SGE enkel en alleen gebruikt wordt voor financiering en andere doeleinden die niet equivalent zijn aan reële consumptie. Daarom is het zeer misleidend te vertrouwen op de SGE opnames om de omvang en de verandering van de werkelijke vraag naar goud in China te bepalen. In 2013 was de totale opname van goud uit de SGE bijvoorbeeld 2.197 ton en in 2014 was dat 2.102 ton. Beide cijfers overschatten de werkelijke vraag naar goud in China, net zoals ze de werkelijke daling van de verkoop van gouden juwelen en met name goudbaren in China onderschatten.”
Goud gebruikt voor financiering
Omdat een groot deel van de opnames van goud via de Shanghai Gold Exchange wordt gebruikt voor financiering vertroebelt het cijfer de daadwerkelijke vraag naar gouden munten, goudbaren, juwelen en andere ornamenten die als goudbelegging aangemerkt kunnen worden. Over het gebruik van goud als middel voor financiering zei analist Klapwijk het volgende:
“Het gebruikt van goud voor financiering… een soort van goud carry trade… is zich de afgelopen jaren aanzienlijk toegenomen. In het schaduw banksysteem maakt men dankbaar gebruik van de beschikbaarheid van goud tegen een verhoudingsgewijs lage rente in vergelijking met gewone renminbi leningen. Dat blijkt ook uit het feit dat het opgegeven volume van goudleningen onder de leden van de SGE in totaal meer dan 1.100 ton groot was. Naar mijn weten is dat volume in 2014 nogal toegenomen. Het is belangrijk om te weten dat vrijwel al deze goudtransacties gehedged worden… het is niet om te speculeren op de goudprijs. Spreads op leningen in het schaduw banksysteem zijn zodanig groot dat tussenpersonen hun blootstelling aan de goudprijs kunnen indekken en nog steeds grote winsten kunnen boeken.”
Klapwijk kreeg de vraag of er naar aanleiding van het Chinese Nieuwjaar veel meer goud verkocht is dan tijdens eerdere jaarwisselingen op de Chinese kalender. Traditioneel is dit een periode waarin Chinezen meer goud kopen. Philip Klapwijk zei daar het volgende over:
“Er was inderdaad sprake van substantiële aankopen van goud, voornamelijk de aankoop van gouden sieraden in de aanloop en zelfs tijdens het Chinese Lunar Nieuwjaar. De impact op de goudmarkt is inmiddels grotendeels voorbij… totdat de voorraden weer aangevuld worden. Vergeleken met het vorige Chinese Nieuwjaar heb ik het gevoel dat de vraag naar goud wat is toegenomen, maar het totaal lag ruim onder het uitzonderlijk hoge niveau van dezelfde periode in 2013. De premie op goud op de SGE gaf hier ook al wat inzicht in… $3 tot $6 per troy ounce is substantieel minder dan wat we zagen in de aanloop naar het Chinese Nieuwjaar in 2013, toen we premies in de dubbele cijfers zagen.”
Over de daling van de vraag naar goudbaren zei de goudanalist van Precious Metals Insights het volgende:
“De vraag naar goudbaren en ornamenten was zwak. dat komt vooral door het gebrek aan belangstelling bij beleggers en door de anti-corruptie campagne in China. De bulk van de vraag is in de vorm van 99,99% zuivere gouden juwelen. Chinezen zien dat zowel als juweel als investering, omdat de premie op 99,99% goud laag is en het gemakkelijk weer te verkopen is. Ik zag laatst een gouden ketting te koop voor 261 renminbi per gram, dat was slechts marginaal hoger dan de goudprijs van die dag. Een dergelijk model ketting moet een hoge omzet genereren.”
Goud als veilige haven?
Philip Klapwijk kreeg ook de vraag voorgelegd of Chinezen goud nog steeds zien als veilige haven. Hij gaf de volgende verklaring:
“De daling van de goudprijs van de afgelopen jaren wat glans van goud heeft weggehaald. Echter is de impact daarvan op de verkoop van gouden juwelen marginaal geweest. Voor goudbaren is het een ander verhaal, zoals blijkt uit de cijfers van 2014. Die halveerden van jaar op jaar.”
18 February 2015 - Bloomberg News / GARP Global Association of Risk Professionals with Philip Klapwijk "Gold Holds Near 6-Week Low on Greek Optimism, Before Fed Minutes"
“People are fairly bullish about the U.S. economy and they are no longer putting back their expectations of a rate hike, so the Fed minutes will be fairly critical,” Philip Klapwijk, managing director of Hong Kong-based Precious Metals Insights Ltd., said by phone. “For Greece the consensus is that there is going to be a last-minute deal.”
18 February 2015 - Bloomberg News with Philip Klapwijk "Altın 6 haftanın en düşüğüne indi Altın, Yunanistan haberleri ile birlikte, Fed tutanakları açıklanmadan önce, altı haftanın en düşük seviyesine indi (15:55'te güncellendi)"
"Hong Kong'da Precious Metals Insights Ltd., idari direktörü Philip Klapwijk, "İnsanlar ABD ekonomisi konusunda oldukça iyimser ve artık faiz artırımına ilişkin beklentilerini geri plana itmiyorlar. Bu yüzden, Fed tutanakları oldukça kritik," dedi ve "Yunanistan için, son dakika anlaşması olacak şeklinde bir görüş birliği var" yorumunda bulundu."
6 February 2015 - online.barrons.com "Don’t look for a repeat of gold’s January rise; the looming increase in interest rates is likely to hurt prices." By Tatyana Shumsky
"Still, investors looking for a fresh bull market in gold may be disappointed, says Philip Klapwijk, an analyst with Precious Metals Insights. “In the absence of a major, unexpected shock to the financial system this year, it is difficult to see why gold’s bear market should not continue,” he says."
"Selon Philip Klapwijk, directeur de Precious Metals Insights Ltd, un marché physique plus tendu fournira du
support au cours cette année. La production mondiale d’argent (mines et
métal de récupération inclus) devrait baisser de 2 % en 2015, tandis que la demande d’argent physique en provenance de l’industrie, de la
photographie et de la joaillerie devrait augmenter de 2 %. Le surplus de
métal qui existe sur le marché devrait baisser de 40 millions d’onces
en 2015 pour atteindre 211 millions d’onces, toujours d’après Precious
Metals Insights Ltd."
22 January 2015 - Bloomberg "Speculators Looking for Havens from Slowing Growth are Piling Into Silver" By Debarati Roy
"A tighter physical market will provide some support to prices this year, Philip Klapwijk, managing director of Hong Kong-based Precious Metals Insights Ltd., said at a conference in London on Jan. 21.
The consulting firm expects global silver supply from mine production and scrapping to fall 2 percent in 2015, and physical demand for uses including industry, photography and jewelry to grow 2 percent. The physical silver-market surplus will shrink by 40 million ounces to 211 million ounces in 2015, according to Precious Metals Insights."
22 January 2015 - Die Welt "Silber mit bestem Jahresstart seit 30 Jahren - Kurs auf Hausse"
Mit dem stärksten Jahresauftakt seit mehr als 30 Jahren ist Silber auf dem besten Weg in einen Bullenmarkt. Von Debarati Roy
Philip Klapwijk, Direktor bei Precious Metals Insights Ltd. in Hong Kong,
verwies bei einer Konferenz in London am 21. Januar auch auf das
geringere Angebot. Er rechnet mit einem Rückgang von zwei Prozent 2015,
während die Nachfrage gleichzeitig um zwei Prozent zulegen dürfte.
20 January 2015 - Release of LBMA 2015 Price Forecast by Philip Klapwijk of Precious Metals Insights Ltd
Average $1,173 High $1,320 Low $1,060
In the absence of a major, unexpected shock to the financial system this year it is difficult to see why gold’s bear market should not continue. Nevertheless, losses ought to be mitigated by somewhat more favourable supply/demand conditions. Mine production may only fall slightly in 2015 but this is likely to represent a noteworthy turning point following many years of output growth. A further drop in scrap is also to be expected. Global jewellery demand will grow this year but those expecting fireworks from China or India are likely to be disappointed. As a result, the bullion surplus that either investors or the official sector needs to absorb will not shrink by all that much. Most importantly, the appetite of these buyers is unlikely to be that great, given relatively little incentive for safe haven or, especially, inflation hedging purchases in 2015. Moreover, gold’s appeal will be limited due to continued stock market gains, further appreciation of the US dollar and the Fed eventually raising interest rates. All the same, a fair degree of resilience to these negative exogenous developments should see attrition rather than collapse in the gold price this year.
Average $15.95 High $18.45 Low $13.90
The slump in silver prices last year would have been yet more severe had it not been for record levels of Indian demand, massive retail investor purchases of bullion products and the stickiness of ETF holdings. Decent but unspectacular growth in fabrication demand and a small reduction in supply in 2015 is likely to be more than compensated for by losses in the aforementioned three areas. India’s appetite for silver will at the margin be affected by a shift back towards gold now that the latter should be more freely available. Retail investors will continue to support the price but the volume of their purchases is expected to fall and they will need the incentive of lower prices. Finally, although a ‘gold-style’ bailout from ETFs is most unlikely some liquidation is probable if prices slide to new lows for the bear market to-date.
Average $1,267 High $1,420 Low $1,180
Platinum prices are expected to be soft in 2015 due to a major recovery in South African mine production from last year’s strike affected level that will more than compensate for higher platinum fabrication demand, most of this coming from auto catalysts. Moreover, there are risks that expected gains this year from the automotive sector may not materialise if the European economy slides back into recession, as this could severely affect the region’s demand for diesel-powered vehicles. Similarly, expectations for moderate growth in Chinese platinum jewellery consumption would need to be revised if GDP growth in the country were to slow substantially. On the other hand, and more positively for the price outlook, the market is currently far too sanguine about the supply side and South Africa. Negative surprises here could therefore translate into substantial price gains driven also, in part, by speculative buy-side interest. Such purchases may also be motivated by buyers’ expectation of a widening in the platinum:gold spread this year, as the white metal partially decouples from gold.
Average $841 High $920 Low $775
A major growth in palladium supply this year, principally from mine production and auto catalyst recycling should more than compensate for robust gains in fabrication demand, especially for auto catalysts and electronics. As such, the market’s ‘deficit’ should be reduced, although it will still require a substantial drawdown of existing bullion stocks. This implies that the price should remain buoyant in 2015, with some bias to the upside. Palladium’s gains will be capped though by investor dishoarding on higher prices and, more generally, the negative influence on sentiment of the rest of the precious metals complex being in the doldrums.
To download Philip Klapwijk's price forecast in pdf please click here:
19 January 2015 - Philip Klapwijk of Precious Metals Insights Limited at the Annual Investment Conference 2015
Philip Klapwijk will be speaking at the conference series which attracts around 500 senior level decision makers from the Private Bank, Wealth Management and Asset Management industries in our key locations – London, Zurich, Frankfurt, Milan and for the first time Paris. The Annual Investment Conferences provide our clients with a view and outlook of the economy on which they can base their 2015 investment decisions; all conferences feature an external expert from the Asset Management industry.
6 January 2015 - Precious Metals Insights Limited is proud start the new year by announcing that Managing Director Philip Klapwijk has just been named as winning analyst in platinum in the 2014 LBMA London Bullion Market Association Precious Metals Forecast Survey results announced today.
Philip Klapwijk secured first prize for his platinum forecast of $1,369, just over $15 off the actual average price for the year of approximately $1,385. This was Philip’s sixth first prize, which makes him the most successful analyst.
7 January 2015 - Philip Klapwijk von Precious Metals Insights Limited sicherte sich den ersten Platz bei den Vorhersagen zum Platinpreis. Er hatte auf einen durchschnittlichen Kurs von 1.369 US-Dollar je Feinunze getippt und lag damit 16 US-Dollar unter dem tatsächlichen Jahresdurchschnitt von 1.385 US-Dollar. Auch hier hatten die Experten im Schnitt mit einem deutlich höheren Preis von 1.490 US-Dollar je Feinunze gerechnet.
7 January 2015 - LBMA назвала лучший прогноз по золоту за 2014 г. LBMA назвала лучший прогноз по золоту за 2014 г. 9 января 2015 Лондонская ассоциация участников рынка драгоценных металлов (LBMA) определила победителей более точных прогнозов цен на золото и серебро в прошедшем 2014 году. Каждый год организация собирает прогнозы многочисленных аналитиков и рассчитывает прогноз среднегодовой цены на драгметаллы, а также максимумы и минимумы цен в течение года. Подробнее: http://gold.ru/news/lbma-nazvala-luchshij-prognoz-po-zolotu-za-2014-god.html
Аналитик Philip Klapwijk из компании Precious Metals Insights Limited получил первое место благодаря своему прогнозу по платине. Он спрогнозировал среднегодовую цену на платину на уровне 1369$ за унцию, а фактическая средняя стоимость платины по итогам года оказалась 1385$. Большинство экспертов прогнозировало более высокую среднюю цену на платину на уровне 1490$ за унцию, поэтому их прогноз также не сбылся. Подробнее:
1 December 2014 - Bullion Bulletin India bullionbulletin.in "It is hard to see the gold bear market ending soon"
Philip Klapwijk, Managing Director, Precious Metals Insights Limited, talked about the current price movement of global gold trade, physical demand in Asia, China’s gold mining sector and PGMs demand etc. while interviewed by Bullion Bulletin. Excerpts…
6 November 2014 - Cronista.com "Inversores chinos perdieron el interés por comprar oro" por Henry Sanderson
"Los consumidores chinos están un poco reacios. No está la misma convicción de que sea una caída temporaria este año", señaló Philip Klapwijk, director general de Precious Metal Insights, una publicación del sector.
6 November 2014 - Financial Times FT.com "Gold price bears take charge of bullion" by Henry Sanderson
“There is a natural caution on the part of buyers and they don’t want to catch the proverbial falling knife,” says Philip Klapwijk, managing director of Precious Metals Insights, an industry publication. “Chinese consumers are a little bit wary – last year they piled in with the correction of the price. There isn’t the same conviction that it’s a temporary blip down [this year].”... “You need China and India to start absorbing more – that would arrest the fall in the price,” Mr Klapwijk says.
18 October 2014 - Fubrec.com 中国将超印度成为全球第一大黄金消费国 中国将超印度成为全球第一大黄金消费国 China will exceed India to become the world's largest gold consumer
“这样的设施说明对中国黄金市场的极大信心,”precious metals insights的总经理philip klapwijk说,“需求的走势是非常积极的”. "This facility shows great confidence in the Chinese gold market," Philip Klapwijk general manager of Precious Metals Insights, says "the demand trend is very positive."
17 October 2014 - "Riddle of inventory levels keeps platinum investors shy" Daily Mail Online by Reuters by Clara Denina and Jan Harvey editing by Veronica Brown and Jason Neely
"My sense is in 2013 they stocked up and in 2014 they let this stuff go," Philip Klapwijk, director at consultancy Precious Metals Insights said. "We have seen selling from investors who, if they think prices are cheap, will fill their boots, and if they think prices are at a good level, will sell."
3-4 December 2014 - 9th annual China Gold & Precious Metals Summit 2014 in Shanghai China - Philip Klapwijk, managing director of Precious Metals Insights will be attending the conference and will be pleased to see you all there. For more information and for conference attendence bookings visit:
9 – 11 November 2014 - LBMA Precious Metals Conference 2014 in Lima Peru Westin Lima Hotel & Convention Center - Philip Klapwijk, managing director of Precious Metals Insights Ltd will be attending the conference and will be pleased to see you all there. For more information and for conference attendence bookings visit:
10-12 September 2014 - China Gold Conference 2014 - Beijing International Conference Center BICC - Philip Klapwijk, managing director of PMI Ltd will be a panel discussion host. For more information and for conference attendence bookings visit:
22 July 2014 - RTHK Radio Hong Kong radio - Gold market
Philip Klapwijk, Managing Director of Precious Metals Insights Limited said, "I think for people who have got sufficient net worth - that there's something really worth trying to protect - I think five to ten percent of your portfolio in gold is a good idea as a backstop."
To hear his commentary on world events affecting the gold price, including the Gaza crisis listen to the full interview by going to the link below and clicking on 8.20 am - Gold market.
4 July 2014 - Reuters & South China Morning Post www.scmp.com "Chinese gold imports tipped to drop in loan deals fallout"
"Chinese gold imports could fall by up to 400 tonnes this year as the central government tightens controls on gold financing deals and domestic demand softens, a leading precious metals consultant said yesterday.
Philip Klapwijk, a director of Hong Kong-based Precious Metals Insights, said the Chinese authorities were once again moving to rein in abuse of gold lending, after a crackdown on commodity financing last year.
He said weaker import volumes in recent months - the mainland's gold imports from Hong Kong dropped in May to the lowest level since January last year - suggested the gold lending business was already being partly wound down.
In the full year, imports could fall by 300 to 400 tonnes, or as much as 22 per cent, he said.
"[Gold imports] will probably decline for the full year given the impact of firstly, weaker real demand in China compared to its outstanding level in 2013 and secondly, measures to restrict the abuse of gold lending and other financial plays using the yellow metal," he said.
"Total imports into China may have reached nearly 1,800 tonnes in 2013, taking into account unofficial and direct shipments.
"That figure will surely be several hundred tonnes lower in 2014 … it is another headwind for any rally in gold this year, and it also means the price floor may be a bit shakier."
Gold prices are up nearly 10 per cent this year after falling last year for the first time in more than a decade, but remain more than 30 per cent below 2011's record highs.
A report from the World Gold Council earlier this year, based on research by Klapwijk, said gold imported into China was being used through gold loans and letters of credit to raise low-cost funds for business investment and speculation. It estimated that up to 1,000 tonnes of gold, worth about US$42 billion at current prices, could be tied up in these transactions.
"In short, you have in China a very large 'surplus' of gold - cumulatively over 2,000 tonnes in the last four years - that can mostly only be explained by either private sector financial use of gold or official purchases," Klapwijk said.
The mainland's chief auditor said last week gold processing firms had since 2012 used falsified gold transactions to borrow 94.4 billion yuan (HK$117.7 billion) from banks.
Klapwijk said the unwinding of gold financing deals could reverse the flow of physical gold, which has moved from west to east in recent years as gold stored to back exchange-traded funds in London and New York was shipped east to meet Chinese demand after investors sold ETFs."
4 July 2014 - Reuters.com "China gold imports may drop 400T hit by financing curbs-consultant" By Jan Harvey (editing by Keiron Henderson)
"Philip Klapwijk, director of the Hong Kong-based Precious Metals Insights, said the Chinese authorities are once again moving to rein in abuse of gold lending, after a crackdown on commodity financing last year.
He said weaker import volumes in recent months - China's gold imports from Hong Kong dropped in May to the lowest level since January last year - suggested the gold lending business was already being partly wound down.
In the full year, imports could fall 300-400 tonnes, or as much as 22 percent, he said.
"(Gold imports) will probably decline for the full year given the impact of firstly, weaker real demand in China compared to its outstanding level in 2013 and secondly, measures to restrict the abuse of gold lending and other financial plays using the yellow metal," he said in an interview with the Reuters Global Gold Forum on Thursday.
"Total imports into China may have reached nearly 1,800 tonnes in 2013, taking into account unofficial and direct shipments," he said. "That figure will surely be several hundred tonnes lower in 2014... It is another headwind for any rally in gold this year, and it also means the price floor may be a bit shakier."
Gold prices are up nearly 10 percent this year after falling in 2013 for the first time in more than a decade, but remain more than 30 percent below 2011's record highs.
A report from the World Gold Council earlier this year, based on research by Klapwijk, said gold imported into China was being used via gold loans and letters of credit to raise low-cost funds for business investment and speculation.
It estimated that up to 1,000 tonnes of gold, worth about $42 billion at current prices, could be tied up in these transactions.
"In short you have in China a very large 'surplus' of gold - cumulatively over 2,000 tonnes in the last 4 years - that can mostly only be explained by either private sector financial use of gold or official purchases," Klapwijk told the Forum.
"It is impossible to be sure of the split between these two main semi-hidden sources of demand, but both would be large, in my view."
China's chief auditor said last week Chinese gold processing firms have since 2012 used falsified gold transactions to borrow 94.4 billion yuan ($15.2 billion) from banks.
While affirming that a drop in Chinese gold imports could prove a drag on price, Klapwijk played down the impact of a large-scale unwinding of Chinese gold financing deals on international prices.
He said however that it could reverse the flow of physical gold, which has moved from west to east in recent years as gold stored to back exchange-traded funds in London and New York was shipped east to meet Chinese demand after investors sold ETFs."
"Given that nearly all of these gold trades are hedged in the futures market, there should be no net effect on the price if they are unwound," he said.
"However, there could be an impact on the contango (discount for immediate delivery) and also on the physical premium or discount loco (located in) China or Hong Kong versus the rest of the world.
He said the premium could potentially fall significantly, adding: "If the discount grows sufficiently then there will be pressure to export material from China to Hong Kong and then back to Europe, reversing in fact some of the financially-driven flows seen between 2011-13."
30 June 2014 - FT.com Financial Times - Singapore seizes on soaring Asia gold demand by Jeremy Grant
"Philip Klapwijk, managing director of Precious Metals Insight, an industry publication, says Hong Kong is unlikely to be dented by Singapore’s plans given its entrenched status as the main entry point for gold destined for cities such as Shenzhen. “I think it’s going to be very difficult for Singapore to take much business from Hong Kong due to the sheer critical mass of China. But Southeast Asia is where it could make its mark,” he says."
3 June 2014 - FT.com Financial Times - Trading to influence gold price fix was ‘routine’ by Xan Rice
"Philip Klapwijk, managing director of Precious Metals Insights, a consultancy, says digital options were also sold to funds, as well as to private banks, and then repackaged for sale to wealthy individuals, typically as interest rate products. In these cases, the option seller pushing around a benchmark was “not quite cricket”, Mr Klapwijk said.""
To view the slides of the presentation in pdf format click here.
To view the slides of the presentation in html format click here.
Outlook for Chinese PGM Demand?:
• Chinese automobile production will grow considerably (KPMG forecast domestic sales of nearly 35m in 2020) plus there will be a positive impact from tighter emission controls, with this only partly offset by ” thrifting ”. Substantial rise in Pd autocatalyst demand therefore expected, with sizeable gains too for Pt and Rh.
• Pt bridal jewellery demand will be adversely affected by a drop in the number of weddings by 2020 but Pt should gain from younger, more sophisticated buyers’ preference for “white” fashion jewellery. Plenty of room for growth in this market even though Pt jewellery faces competition from white K-gold and, to some extent, branded silver jewellery.
• Industrial demand for PGMs should generally continue to increase but gains may be more modest than in the past due to an expected slowdown in Chinese industrial production growth and less re-location of manufacturing industry from overseas to China than formerly.
• China’s importance to the PGMs market should increase further in future and its demand will play a part in supporting higher prices for the PGMs. China is already the world’s number one consumer of platinum and is expected to overtake the US as the world’s largest user of palladium by 2015.
15 April 2014 - The World Gold Council report Chinese gold demand over the medium term with Philip Klapwijk of Precious Metals Insights
The World Gold Council commissioned Precious Metals Insights (PMI) to lead the research into the outlook for Chinese gold demand over the medium term (defined as 2014 - 2017 for the purpose of this report) and to compose this report that details its findings. Philip Klapwijk, founder and Managing Director of PMI, is a veteran of the gold market, with a wealth of experience through his time as Executive Chairman of GFMS and Head of Global Metals Analytics at Thomson Reuters GFMS. The research is a synthesis of his intimate knowledge of the Chinese gold market and the World Gold Council’s expertise. This was complemented by a series of in - depth interviews PMI and the World Gold Council jointly undertook with a number of key gold market participants in Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing. In addition, the report draws upon the extensive consumer research the World Gold Council has undertaken over recent years. This includes: A comprehensive usage and attitudes study of over 10,000 Chinese consumers’ relationship with gold jewellery undertaken in 2011 (TNS). A piece of regular research from May 2013 to March 2014 with a series of waves asking Chinese consumers about their outlook for gold prices and intentions to buy gold jewellery over the next 12 months (Kadence). A snapshot of 1,000 Chinese consumers to understand what motivates them to buy gold jewellery and bullion (TNS). The collective knowledge of PMI and the World Gold Council, combined with extensive consumer research and industry expertise, has resulted in a detailed and insightful piece of analysis.
15 April 2014 - FT.com Financial Times - "China companies hoard gold for collateral" The World Gold Council report with PMI
“We expect 2014 to be a year of consolidation,” said the report, written by veteran gold market analyst Philip Klapwijk. “The sudden price drop in 2013 meant some Chinese consumers brought forward jewellery and bar purchases, which may limit growth in demand in 2014.”
15 April 2014 - Reuters - "Update 1 - China may have 1,000 tonnes of gold tied in financing - WGC" with Philip Klapwijk of PMI
"The report - issued by the World Gold Council (WGC) on Tuesday - and other sources in China said gold was not as widely used for raising money as copper, which saw prices drop to a 3-1/2 year low in March on fears that those deals would unravel. "Imported gold is being used via gold loans and letters of credit (LC) to raise low cost funds for business investment and speculation," the report said. "The use of gold for purely financial operations is a form of demand that represents a small part of the much wider growth in shadow banking. It is feasible that by the end of 2013 this could have reached a cumulative 1,000 tonnes." That accounts for almost a third of annual global production and is worth about $43 billion at current prices. The estimates come from Precious Metals Insights, a Hong Kong-based consultancy commissioned for the survey on China."
2014 January 29 Bullion Morning with Precious Metals Insight – Gold price may drop to $1,100/oz by Eddie van der Walt & editing by Mark Shaw
(In a new series, FastMarkets examines state of the precious metals markets in conjuction with some of the industry's most respected commentators. Today we spoke with Precious Metals Insight’s Philip Klapwijk)
London 29/01/2014 - The immediate future for gold prices is firmly lower, Precious Metals Insight's Philip Klapwijk told FastMarkets in an exclusive interview on Wednesday.
"My view remains bearish, and it has been reinforced by the rather disappointing rally in gold in what should have been a very positive period recently," he said.
After falling to a six-month low of $1,182.45 on the last trading day of 2013, gold posted the largest rally since October, climbing to $1,276.80 before retreating - it was last at $1,254.55/1,255.40 per ounce, up $2.15 on Tuesday's close.
But the rally was uninspiring and did little to restore his confidence in the gold market, Klapwijk said.
"It didn't manage to challenge $1,300 this time and, while the bottom seems to be very well protected, we seem unable to break higher," he added.
But a test to the downside is back on the cards, he believes particularly with Asian demand easing off ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays, which start at the end of this week, and the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve will announce a further round of QE tapering later today...
"The committee could, though, move to remind us that the threshold is merely an indication of where it might consider raising rates," he added.
The FOMC is due to publish its statement this evening. QE has been a prop to gold so its removal could send prices lower.
"The key thing to see to see is whether the downside support is broken," Klapwijk said. "So far it has proved very solid, but I think it will be broken in February and in that case I think we will see gold gap lower and trade closer to $1,100, and pretty quickly. I think the dam will break if those technical support levels are broken and people rush for the exit." But Klapwijk also remains negative further ahead, saying he does not believe lower prices will immediately lead to substantial production cuts - while all-in costs may be in the red, the cash cost level remains substantially more positive.
In wider markets, the dollar weakened against the euro this morning, falling a fifth of a cent to 1.3676. And in equities, the Nikkei, the Hang Seng, the FTSE 100 and the Dax are all firmer.
Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to fall, with those tracked by FastMarkets shedding a further 2.27 tonnes to 1,752.90 tonnes.
Apart from the FOMC meeting, the market is awaiting weekly US crude oil inventories. Earlier, EU M3 money supply at 1.0 percent in December was at its lowest in almost three-and-a-half years, while private loans at -2.4 percent was in line with forecast and unchanged from the previous month.
In the rest of the complex, strikes in South Africa are still not lending support to the platinum group metals.
Klapwijk said this may have been a case of "buy the rumour, sell the fact", with investors banking that the strikes will not last very long.
Platinum was last holding just above $1,400, up $2 at $1,406/1,411 per ounce, with palladium up $6 at $716/721. Silver was 12 cents higher at $19.62/19.67.
The London Bullion Market Association - LBMA 2014 Price Forecast by Philip Klapwijk of Precious Metals Insights Limited
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2014 - January - Financial Times FT.com article by Xan Rice with Philip Klapwijk "Gold analysts most bearish since 2002"
"The metal has enjoyed a decent start to 2014, rising about 3 per
cent. But Philip Klapwijk, of Precious Metals Insights, said this was in
fact disappointing, given the lead-up to Chinese New Year, when
purchases are usually strong.
“I would have thought gold would have gone to $1,350 this month,” Mr Klapwijk said.
He expects the price to fall below $1,180 – a level where it has previously enjoyed support – in the coming months."
2013 - December - Financial Times FT.com article by Xan Rice and Jack Farchy with Philip Klapwijk "Little glitter for gold in 2014"
“The deck is pretty much stacked against gold next year in terms of economic developments,” says Philip Klapwijk, managing director of Precious Metals Insights, a Hong Kong-based consultancy. “We will continue to see disposals but I don’t think it will be on the scale of this year.”...
2013 November 7 - Bullion Vault article with Philip Klapwijk "People's Bank of China "Buying Gold, Supports Prices"
"China's central bank seen as a big gold buyer in 2013 by leading analyst... Gold buying by the People's Bank of China may have totaled 300 tonnes so far in 2013, helping "support prices" during the worst drop in 30 years according to a leading precious metals analyst. "We've seen tremendous amounts of gold go into Hong Kong for onward shipment to mainland China," says Philip Klapwijk, formerly of Thomson Reuters GFMS, in his first public report as CEO of new consultancy Precious Metals Insights. Domestic mine output, already the world's No.1 since 2007, has also risen this year. But gold buying data from China's jewelry, industrial and investment sector "do not seem to account fully for this surge in supply," says Klapwijk. To explain the gap, "anecdotal information" should be used to supplement official and reported data, says Klapwijk. Because not all aspects of the global or Chinese gold markets are transparent for precise analysis. And what Klapwijk calls "a growing contribution" to China's demand would seem to come thanks to the People's Bank. "China needs to import a substantial amount of gold to meet its soaring local demand," the report says. But reviewing the available data, supply to meet China's demand for buying gold "comfortably exceeded" 1,000 tonnes in the first half of 2013 alone, Precious Metals Insights goes on. The discrepancy "clearly implies that the Chinese authorities have been acquiring gold," says Klapwijk, with a chart showing perhaps 300 tonnes of gold buying by the central bank in the first half of 2013, when gold prices slumped. The People's Bank of China last updated the world on its state gold bullion reserves in 2009, reporting a sharp rise to 1054 tonnes... "Undoubtedly," says Philip Klapwijk, quoted separately by Bloomberg News in Singapore on Thursday, the fact that the central bank has been buying gold in 2013 "has provided support for prices, which could have been weaker" without it."
2013 October 18 - Comments by Philip Klapwijk regarding Gold's Economic Impact $210 Billion in 2012
Philip Klapwijk, managing director of Hong Kong-based Precious Metals Insights Limited, says that budget cuts by the mining industry will take time to be reflected in lower mine output.
Indeed, this year, he adds, global gold mine production should still rise slightly compared to 2012, partly because cost pressure on the miners is not yet sufficient to force closures of existing operations.
“Nearly all mines have cash operating costs below $1,300. So, even though on a fully costed basis a good chunk of the industry is not, strictly speaking, profitable at prevailing prices, it is not bleeding cash. Companies will not shut down operations they have invested heavily in if they believe they can ride out a limited period of low prices,” he says.
But in addition to the price slump, crushing margins, and lower share prices, Klapwijk points to another issue that the mining industry is grappling with: reserve depletion.
“All the larger companies are seeing an ongoing erosion in their reserve base. Exploration success has been very patchy in spite of the large sums invested and has certainly, as a rule, failed in terms of replacing ounces that have been and continue to be mined. Besides this, pressure on gold companies only increases in terms of environmental legislation and obligations, resource nationalism, and, associated with this, heavier fiscal pressures,” he adds.
"It's a good call," agreed ... Philip Klapwijk, formerly GFMS and now running boutique consultancy Precious Metals Insights. But prices need to reach that level, the panel also agreed, to "clear out weak longs" from gold investments before a new bull phase can begin.
"One reason for pessimism short-term," said Klapwijk, "is that the surplus [of total supply over jewelry demand] remains high historically. Gold needs to fall further to narrow the gap."
On his forecast, 2013 will see net gold investment worldwide fall dramatically from 2012 to $40 billion – "close to pre-financial crisis levels."
"Una razón para el pesimismo a corto plazo", dijo Philip Klapwijk de Precious Metals Insights, "es que el exceso [de abastecimiento total sobre la demanda de joyería] se mantiene alto. Los precios del oro necesitan caer más para acortar el espacio".
En su predicción, 2013 verá la inversión neta en oro caer dramáticamente desde la de 2012 a 40.000 millones de dólares, "cerca de los niveles pre-crisis".
"Robust demand for gold jewels and bars has set "a higher floor for the price," said Philip Klapwijk, managing director of Hong Kong-based researcher Precious Metals Insight Ltd. But physical demand alone can't absorb the supply in the market that has been abandoned by investors, Mr. Klapwijk said.
Demand "won't be enough to drive the price up on a sustained basis" in the near future, Mr. Klapwijk said."
2013 - 29 September - 1 October 2013 - Philip Klapwijk was panel member at The LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2013 in Rome in the Panel Session – Is the Bull Market Over? with Dr Brian Lucey, Professor of Finance, Trinity College Dublin as Chairman.
2013 - February - Interview in OroyFinanzas.com in Spanish with Philip Klapwijk concerning the Indian gold market, recycling & smuggling
“Comparando la demanda de oro del año pasado con la del 2011, comprobamos que la India fue el país, donde mas se derrumbó la demanda de oro a nivel mundial”... “Posiblemente al menos una cuarta parte del oro que entra en la India está llegando a través de canales no oficiales”
2013 - January - reuters.com - London gold forecasters - Philip Klapwijk ranked in the Top 10 eight times over the 12-year bull run.
"Philip Klapwijk... provided the outright best prediction of the gold price in two of the 12 years... Klapwijk said he had no simple formula for forecasts: "There's no black box, no model for forecasting gold prices, and I don't believe in simple relationships, like gold and the dollar, or that it's a risk-on, risk-off thing," he said. "Those are very simplistic views. They may operate for periods, but these correlations come and go.""
2011 - September - Philip Klapwijk interviewed regarding gold prices in Mail & Guardian Online - Africa´s best read
“Not only did we have the threatened contagion from peripheral to core eurozone countries, but it also crossed the Atlantic in the form of the US credit rating being downgraded. And both of these were critical to the surge in investment witnessed recently"
Each year the LBMA Forecast gathers the opinions of selected bankers, traders and analysts who follow the precious metals markets with their forecasts for the high, low and average dollar fixing price per troy ounce for for gold, silver, platinum and palladium. The aim of the LBMA Forecast is to predict the average, high and low price for each metal as accurately as possible. The prediction closest to the average price wins. In the event of a tie the forecast range is taken into account. In the 2009 LBMA Forecast Philip Klapwijk took the prizes for most accurate forecaster for both gold and silver prices.
2008 - miningmx.com - Rainmakers profile: Philip Klapwijk
"Where there's gold, there's Philip Klapwijk ... talking about it." "In Philip we trust"... "in the Nineties Klapwijk... dragged GFMS from its obscure past as a division in the Gold Fields of SA fold, into the slightly more sexier, globe-trotting market spirit-level"